Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4615 · STL → PHX
departs 7:20 PM CT · arrives 8:30 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 27%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
7pm departures from STL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 967 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.32 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.