Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4620
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4620 · TPA → DEN
departs 8:45 PM ET · arrives 10:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 50%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.