WN 4621 · BWI → TYS

departs 7:56 PM ET · arrives 9:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 7pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

TYS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4621 · BWI → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?