WN 4626 · AUS → DEN

departs 8:56 AM CT · arrives 10:08 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.69 in

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4626 · AUS → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?