Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4627
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4627 · BWI → FLL
departs 6:15 AM ET · arrives 8:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 10%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↑
FLL is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FLL (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.84 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.