Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4629
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4629 · CMH → MCO
departs 7:35 PM ET · arrives 9:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 40%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.