Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4638 · FLL → BNA
departs 9:35 AM ET · arrives 10:50 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 11%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day
↑
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.37 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.