Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 463
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 463 · DAL → MCO
departs 6:35 PM CT · arrives 10:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±2 pts
−20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 3.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 3.06 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.