WN 4648 · MDW → RDU

departs 6:51 PM CT · arrives 9:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 967 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 6pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.90 in

RDU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4648 · MDW → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?