WN 464 · BHM → MDW

departs 5:11 AM CT · arrives 7:19 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ BHM is prone to delays

↑ MDW is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from BHM are usually not late

Weather at each end

BHM (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 464 · BHM → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?