WN 4650 · HOU → STL

departs 12:56 PM CT · arrives 3:07 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±0 pts +33 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
25%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at STL that day

↑ 12pm departures from HOU are often late

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.72 in

STL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,857 ft Visibility5.71429 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4650 · HOU → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?