Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4654
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4654 · MCO → HOU
departs 4:40 PM ET · arrives 6:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 9/30 28%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 26%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.