Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4659
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4659 · MKE → LAS
departs 11:45 AM CT · arrives 1:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MKE that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.36 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.