WN 4669 · BWI → MEM

departs 9:31 AM ET · arrives 10:51 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ BWI is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

MEM (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4669 · BWI → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?