WN 4678 · DEN → SAT

departs 4:44 PM MT · arrives 8:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,367 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 7.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ 4pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling540 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip3.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4678 · DEN → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?