Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4686 · ATL → BNA
departs 2:30 PM ET · arrives 2:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 47% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.