WN 4689 · LAS → FAT

departs 3:26 PM PT · arrives 4:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4689 · LAS → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?