Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4701
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4701 · MSY → LAS
departs 2:00 PM CT · arrives 3:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Wed 9/30 18%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from MSY are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
MSY is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.