Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4711
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4711 · MCO → BNA
departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 6:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 56%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.