WN 4712 · SAN → PIT

departs 10:21 AM PT · arrives 5:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PIT at that hour are often late

↓ PIT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4712 · SAN → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?