Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4758
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4758 · ATL → PHX
departs 3:40 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 30%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.