Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4761
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4761 · MCO → MHT
departs 8:55 AM ET · arrives 11:50 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 7%
Mon 10/5 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MHT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MHT?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
MHT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.14 in
MHT (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.