Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4765
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4765 · MDW → PDX
departs 4:40 PM CT · arrives 7:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 33%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 29%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
This flight has been late 48% of the time recently
↑
4pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.18 in
PDX (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.