Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4791
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4791 · BNA → SLC
departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 6:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 36%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SLC (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.