WN 4792 · LAS → RDU

departs 12:38 PM PT · arrives 8:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4792 · LAS → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?