WN 4794 · IND → HOU

departs 8:31 PM ET · arrives 9:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ IND usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

HOU (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.73 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4794 · IND → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?