Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4796
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4796 · MCI → TPA
departs 5:10 AM CT · arrives 8:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 3%
Sat 10/3 5%
Mon 10/5 2%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.60 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.