WN 4801 · MSY → MCI

departs 6:01 PM CT · arrives 8:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from MSY are often late

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ MSY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.13 in

MCI (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4801 · MSY → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?