Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4801
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4801 · PHX → STL
departs 1:35 PM MT · arrives 6:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 33%
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.