Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4804
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4804 · PHX → PIT
departs 4:55 PM MT · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 40%
Mon 10/5 34%
Fri 10/9 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.