WN 4810 · MCO → STT

departs 11:01 AM ET · arrives 2:05 PM AST

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at STT more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 11am departures from MCO are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at STT that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

STT (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4810 · MCO → STT

Odds over time

How late will it get to STT?