WN 4817 · AUS → SJC

departs 12:11 PM CT · arrives 2:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SJC that day

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip1.67 in

SJC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4817 · AUS → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?