Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 481
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 481 · SAT → BNA
departs 1:50 PM CT · arrives 4:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 49% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 540 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 3.40 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.