WN 4831 · DAL → MSY

departs 11:01 AM CT · arrives 12:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 2.6 in of rain forecast at DAL that day

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from DAL are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.59 in

MSY (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4831 · DAL → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?