Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4835
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4835 · OMA → PHX
departs 7:20 AM CT · arrives 8:05 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 6%
Sat 10/3 3%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at OMA that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from OMA are usually not late
Weather at each end
OMA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.14 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.