Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4842
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4842 · SAN → OAK
departs 4:20 PM PT · arrives 5:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 39%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at OAK that day
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.