WN 4845 · LGA → MDW

departs 5:46 PM ET · arrives 7:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4845 · LGA → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?