Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4854 · DEN → MCO
departs 5:00 AM MT · arrives 10:40 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 4%
Sat 10/3 4%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from DEN are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.