Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4865 · OAK → BUR
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 9:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BUR at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.