Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 486
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 486 · DAL → LAS
departs 10:40 AM CT · arrives 11:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Wed 9/30 33%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 14%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.73 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.