Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4870 · PHX → TUS
departs 1:00 PM MT · arrives 1:50 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 25%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.