WN 4873 · ABQ → MCO

departs 2:26 PM MT · arrives 8:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4873 · ABQ → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?