Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4874
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4874 · SAN → MCO
departs 9:55 PM PT · arrives 5:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/1
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.