Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4887
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 4887 · IND → MCI
departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 2:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 26%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
Other factors
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.60 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.