WN 4892 · DEN → BUF

departs 1:51 PM MT · arrives 6:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at BUF that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4892 · DEN → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?