WN 4914 · SAN → SJC

departs 6:31 AM PT · arrives 8:07 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is busy at that time

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SJC that day

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SJC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4914 · SAN → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?