WN 4922 · STL → SAT

departs 8:31 AM CT · arrives 10:49 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ SAT is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,420 ft Visibility4.4 mi Precip0.12 in

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling540 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip3.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4922 · STL → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?