Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4923
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4923 · MCO → IND
departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 7:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.