Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4928
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4928 · PDX → OAK
departs 12:25 PM PT · arrives 2:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3 10%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 2%
Wed 10/7 2%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.