Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4950
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4950 · LAX → SFO
departs 12:25 PM PT · arrives 1:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 48%
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 57% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.